The Coming Copper Crunch

Copper isn’t just another metal; it’s the backbone of electrification. Every EV, wind turbine, data center, and semiconductor tool depends on it. Yet by 2035, the world will face a severe shortage.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global copper demand will reach 28.3 million tonnes, while expected mine supply will stall around 21.8 million tonnes—a shortfall of more than 6.5 million tonnes. That gap excludes recycled material, meaning new mining alone cannot keep up (Source: The Guardian).

This imbalance isn’t theoretical. It’s already taking shape, setting the stage for a prolonged period of tight markets and higher prices.

Why Demand Keeps Rising

The simplest explanation is also the hardest to avoid: electrification.

As countries industrialize and modernize, their electricity consumption per person climbs. Data from BHP and the World Bank shows that as GDP per capita rises, so does electricity use—and with it, copper consumption. By 2035, fast-growing economies like India, Indonesia, and China will see steep increases in both energy use and copper intensity.

From renewable power infrastructure to electric vehicles, copper demand is embedded in the global energy transition. Every kilometer of EV wiring, every inverter, and every solar interconnect uses more copper than its fossil counterpart.

This megatrend isn’t cyclical, it’s structural.

Why Supply Can’t Keep Up

Even if global demand were flat, copper would still be getting harder to produce.

Research from S&P Global and Wood Mackenzie shows a 40% decline in average ore grade since the early 1990s. More than half of the world’s copper now comes from mines over 20 years old, many past peak output.

Lower-grade ore means more rock must be mined, more energy must be used, and more waste must be managed, driving up cost per tonne even before new demand enters the equation.

At the same time, new projects face long permitting cycles, rising capital costs, and increasing ESG scrutiny. In short, the copper supply system was not built for the level of demand the world now requires.

What the Forecasts Say

The World Bank’s Commodity Outlook projects copper prices climbing from $6,174/tonne in 2020 to around $8,000/tonne by 2035—a 30% increase in nominal terms.

But that’s the conservative view.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe copper could hit $15,000/tonne by 2025, citing rapid depletion of global visible stocks. Since 2022, inventories have been falling sharply as supply plateaus and green demand surges.

Goldman’s data shows that without a significant investment in new mining capacity, stocks could hit critical lows within this decade. And even if new mines were approved today, most wouldn’t reach production before the 2030s.

The Green Demand Decade

The next decade will see the strongest copper demand growth since 2000, and it’s being driven by the green economy.

Goldman Sachs projects that “green copper” demand (from EVs, renewables, and charging infrastructure) will climb from under 1 million tonnes in 2020 to over 5.4 million tonnes by 2030. That share will rise from 3% of total demand to nearly 16%.

This demand is not price-sensitive. These sectors are policy-backed and central to net-zero targets worldwide. Even if copper prices double, governments and corporations will continue building renewable grids and electrified transport.

The Economics of Shortage

Global copper balance models show mine supply growth turning negative after 2024, just as electrification accelerates. The result is a historic supply gap, the largest ever recorded.

To close that gap, prices near $10,000–12,000/tonne are required to make new mining projects economically viable. But those same high prices cascade downstream into every industry that relies on copper; from plating operations to electronics manufacturing.

And the reality is, this isn’t just about market speculation. The FRED copper price index shows a consistent long-term trend: copper prices have risen fivefold since 2000, with each correction establishing a higher floor.

The volatility we see today is simply the surface reflection of a deeper structural shortage.

Reducing Dependence, Not Hope

No business can control the global copper market, but you can control your exposure to it.

The best way to future-proof against the rising cost of copper is to reduce dependence on virgin material. By recovering and reusing copper from process streams, companies can offset procurement risk, stabilize costs, and lessen the impact of market volatility.

That’s where ElectraMet plays a critical role. Our electrochemical systems recover dissolved copper directly from wastewater, producing pure solid copper that can be reused internally or sold as a high-value product.

By converting waste into a recoverable asset, manufacturers reduce their need for newly mined copper, turning what was once a cost center into a source of margin protection.

From Risk to Resilience

Future-proofing isn’t about predicting prices; it’s about insulating your business from them.

The global copper market will remain tight for decades. Mines are aging, grades are falling, and demand is growing faster than the industry can expand. Prices will rise; volatility will increase.

But companies that invest in circular copper recovery can keep those increases marginal. By capturing the copper already in your processes, you not only reduce purchasing costs—you also shrink your carbon footprint and demonstrate leadership in sustainable manufacturing.

The future cost of copper may be out of your control.

Your dependence on it isn’t.